Niti Aayog VC Rajiv Kumar: India needs to grow at 10.5-11% in next fiscal | India Business News – Times of India

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NEW DELHI: India needs to grow at 10.5-11 per cent in real terms in the next fiscal and sustain that to overcome massive ill-effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, Niti Aayog vice chairman Rajiv Kumar said on Friday.
Kumar further said India needs to be prepared for the next pandemic as the country was caught unprepared during the Covid-19 pandemic.
“We need to grow at 10.5 to 11 per cent in real terms 2021-22 and then sustain that to overcome massive ill-effects of the Covid-19 pandemic,” he said while addressing a virtual event organised by National CSR Network.
India’s economy is estimated to contract 8 per cent in fiscal 2020-21.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected India’s economic growth in 2021-22 at 10.5 per cent, while chief economic adviser K V Subramanian has projected an 11 per cent growth for the same period.
The Niti Aayog vice-chairman also noted that the Indian economy is now surging towards a recovery.
“We have to make sure that we take everybody along,” he said.
The last time India suffered due to a pandemic was during the Spanish Flu in 1918 and the country lost 5-7 per cent population, Kumar added.
“We better prepare for the next pandemic. We were caught unprepared (during the Covid-19 crisis).
“…We did not know the extent to which our people will be affected. Migrants took us by surprise,” he said.
Noting that the business as usual will not do, Kumar said there is a need to reduce the size of India’s informal economy.
He pointed out that corporations and the government are fighting the pandemic together.
“Development agenda cannot be entirely advanced by the government alone. Political leaders and corporate leaders need to work together,” he said.
Observing that India’s political leaders, including Mahatma Gandhi, had no qualms in working with corporate leaders, he said, “It is time again to rekindle that”.
“Time therefore to get over this nonsense of calling names of corporate leaders or mistrusting the corporate leaders,” he added.
Kumar noted that corporate social responsibility (CSR) is the bridge between corporate and society.
The CSR can be a bridge between the government and corporate also, he added.
“The CSR is critical to the working of society and economy.
“The CSR is misunderstood, CSR is not charity but something essential to Corporates,” he said.

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India’s Economy May Grow at 12% in 2021: Moody’s Analytics

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New Delhi: India’s economy is likely to grow by 12 per cent in 2021 following a 7.1 per cent contraction last year, as near-term prospects have turned more favourable, Moody’s Analytics said. A stronger than expected December quarter GDP growth of 0.4 per cent following a 7.5 per cent contraction in the previous three months has turned India’s near-term prospects more favourable, it said.

Domestic and external demand has been on the mend since the easing of restrictions, which has led to improved manufacturing output in recent months. “We expect private consumption and nonresidential investment to materially pick up over the next few quarters and strengthen the domestic demand revival in 2021,” it said.

Moody’s saw real GDPgrowth of 12 per cent in the 2021 calendar year, partially due to a low base-year comparison. “This forecast is equivalent to real GDP, in level terms, growing by 4.4 per cent above pre-COVID-19 levels (as of March 2020) by the end of 2021, or equivalently, by 5.7 per cent above the GDP level in December 2020 by the end of 2021,” it said.

It said monetary and fiscal policy settings will remain conducive to growth. “We do not expect any additional rate cuts this year below the current 4 per cent at which the benchmark repurchase rate is being maintained,” it said. It saw some additional fiscal support being mobilised during the second half of the year, depending on the softness in domestic spending.

Direct forms of fiscal support such as income tax cuts, however, are less likely in the current setting. “We expect the budget for fiscal 2021-2022 to drive the annual fiscal deficit to nearly 7 per cent of GDP,” it said. “It includes additional expenditure on infrastructure development, and the associated benefits in the form of employment creation should accrue over the coming quarters.” Core inflation is likely to see a more controlled rise in 2021, although food-price or fuel-driven inflation can become a recurring factor, weighing on household disposable income.

Moody’s Analytics said a strengthening second wave of COVID-19 remains the key risk to recovery in 2021. “The good news is that the resurgence appears to be limited to just a few states, which should increase the chances of containing the spread at an early stage,” it said. “Our baseline forecasts assume that state governments are likely to adopt a targeted approach through limited-duration curfews and shutdowns if the situation deteriorates rather than large-scale shutdowns of the kind seen during the first wave.” Vaccinations hold the key to sustaining domestic recovery.Total vaccinations crossed the 35 million mark on March 16.

“However, the various logistical constraints and thesheer scale of implementation could negatively impact the pace of inoculations in the months ahead and eventually the timing of achieving herd immunity,” it said. “Our March baseline forecast assumes that herd immunity is unlikely to be reached before the end of 2022.” .

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Indian economy looking at ‘V-shaped’ recovery: Anurag Thakur – Times of India

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MUMBAI: There are green shoots visible in various sectors of the economy and the country is already looking at a ‘V-shaped’ recovery, minister of state for finance and corporate affairs Anurag Thakur said on Saturday.
“India is already looking at ‘V-shaped’ recovery. Along with the green shoots in various sectors, in the month of February, FPI inflows were Rs 25,787 crore,” Thakur said at a virtual conclave organised by the Institute of Actuaries of India.
After two consecutive quarters of contraction, the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) entered into a positive territory with a growth of 0.4 per cent in the October-December quarter of the current fiscal, according to the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) in February.
Thakur said the country’ foreign exchange reserves, which have been steadily increasing over the last few months, had touched all time high at $590 billion in January 2021.
He said the accretion to the forex reserves in the last eight month was $100 billion.
“These are signs of confidence that the global funds and investors look at India as a destination to invest and they are bullish about India’s growth story,” Thakur added.

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Budget Tilted Towards Supporting Growth; FY22 Fiscal Deficit Target of 6.8% Realistic: Moody’s

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India’s Budget is tilted towards supporting growth and the fiscal deficit target of 6.8 per cent for 2021-22 is realistic, Moody’s Investors Service said on Thursday. With regard to India’s finances, Moody’s said weak fiscal position will remain a key credit challenge in 2021.

It said the government’s fiscal deficit for 2020-21 and 2021-22 should be lower than projected, supported by stronger revenue generation in ongoing March quarter and higher nominal GDP growth in the next fiscal year. “India Budget tends to tilt a little bit in favour of support for growth. The deficit in Budget for FY’22 was above what we expected, but nevertheless we think that the deficit target is a realistic one.

“The government has incorporated a conservative assumption of nominal GDP growth and we think most revenue assumptions conservative, with the possible exception of monetisation expectations pegged in Budget,” Moody’s Associate Managing Director (Sovereign Risk) Gene Fang said. Wide fiscal deficits combined with lower real and nominal GDP growth over the medium term will constrain the government’s ability to reduce its debt burden, Fang said in an online conference organised by Moody’s and its affiliate ICRA on ‘India Credit Outlook 2021’.

Moody’s said the prospects for fiscal consolidation remain weak particularly given the government’s mixed track record of implementing revenue-raising measures. Although the government has not provided an explicit medium-term fiscal consolidation road map, the budget targets a fiscal deficit of 4.5 per cent of GDP by fiscal 2025-26, which amounts to an average annual deficit reduction of about 0.5 per cent of GDP over four years, it added.

“Given India’s very high debt burden, this gradual pace of consolidation will prevent any material strengthening in the government’s fiscal position over the medium term, unless nominal GDP growth picks up sustainably to reach much higher rates than historically recorded,” it added. India has exceeded its fiscal deficit target of 3.5 per cent in the current fiscal year by a wide margin due to higher spendings to stimulate the economy amid the pandemic.

The fiscal deficit – the excess of government expenditure over its revenues – has been pegged at 9.5 per cent of the GDP in the current fiscal year, as per the revised estimate. For 2021-22, the deficit has been put at 6.8 per cent of the GDP, which will be further lowered to 4.5 per cent by 2025-26.



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